The Leonids

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2006 Predictions

New mathematical models were introduced during 1999 which successfully predicted the date and times the Leonid meteor stream would reach maximum in that year. Unfortunately, these same models failed to adequately model the intensity of the displays. Although slight improvements were made for the 2000 and 2001 displays, no model received a perfect score. The 2002 display was an improvement, as was the much weaker 2003 display. The Leonids had virtually returned to normal levels during 2004 and 2005.

It now appears that the prediction of Leonid outbursts has nearly become an exact science. But there is one final test. Several astronomers have independently noted that an outburst is likely in 2006. This will not be like the storm-level outbursts of 1999-2002, but it is an outburst. The Earth is expected to pass through the dust filament produced during the 1932 return of comet Tempel-Tuttle. The following details are available:

Mikiya Sato predicts Earth will encounter the dust trail at 4:44 UT on November 19. He predicted rates of 100-150 per hour.

David Asher and Robert McNaught predict Earth will encounter the dust trail at 4:45 Universal Time (UT) on November 19. They predict rates of 120 per hour.

Mikhail Maslov predicts Earth will encounter the dust trail at 4:55 UT on November 19. He predicts a rate of 31 per hour.

Jeremie Vaubaillon predicts Earth will encounter the dust trail at 4:58 UT on November 19. He predicts a rate of 100 per hour, but noted that higher rates might be detect by observers using radio devices because of the meteor population will be smaller than at previous outbursts.